Regarding “Letter writer, not mock trial organizers, showed no grace” (May 19): unfortunately, Larry Bakko, the decision support system coordinator for the National High School Mock Trial Championship (NHSMTC), continues to blow a combination of statistical fallacies, lies, and canards to impugn the performance of the Sabbath-observing high school team from Massachusetts rather than graciously conceding a successful accommodation welcomed by the vast majority of students, coaches and observers.

As a Harvard Ph.D. in Applied Mathematics, I am shocked by Mr. Bakko’s stunning lack of knowledge of elementary statistics. In the following analysis, it is important to note that Massachusetts was one round ahead of the other teams due to the Sabbath accommodation.

Lets begin with round one. Mr. Bakko claims “They [Massachusetts] faced a limited risk, since many teams were still in flight to Atlanta and were not available to create the same pool of competitors.” As any first year statistics student knows, sampling from a random subset (those who arrived early) is equivalent to sampling from the entire pool since there is no reason to assume that those teams with earlier flights were any better or worse on average than teams with later flights. Hence, the first round assignment was statistically fair.

Now for round two. Since Massachusetts lost round one, ideally it would have been matched against another team that lost round one. Instead, Massachusetts faced a randomly selected team from the entire pool including 20 teams that went on to win the first round. In fact, the team they played went on to win their first two rounds and ended up ranking higher. Disadvantage Massachusetts.

Turning to round three. Since by now Massachusetts had lost two rounds, it was appropriate to match with another team that lost the first two rounds. Instead, since Massachusetts was one round ahead, it was matched against a team that had lost only one round. Since half of these first round losing teams go on to win the second round, Massachusetts actually risked being matched with a stronger team than it deserved. Disadvantage Massachusetts.

Finally, round four. Since the Massachusetts record was now 1-2, the closest match was either a weak 1-1 team or a strong 0-2 team. Instead, Mr. Bakko chose a relatively strong 1-0 team who won all 3 ballots on their first round. Disadvantage Massachusetts.

The fact that this fourth round team was the Georgia-B team or that it didn’t play all the rounds is a canard. The host state runner-up is only invited to participate (as in this case) when there exists an odd number of teams in a round and has no intrinsic “right” to compete in the tournament. In fact, had Massachusetts not participated, the Georgia-B team would not have not competed at all.

Finally, given that Georgia had won the national championships for the past two years, it is disingenuous to claim that the runner-up state team is necessarily weaker than other participants.

The above analysis clearly proves that contrary to Mr. Bakko’s assertions, the first round was statistically fair while the last three rounds if anything statistically disadvantaged Massachusetts.

Now what about Mr. Bakko’s claim that one of Massachusetts’ wins was against a school that ended up ranking #34 or that Maine, which also ranked #20, played a tougher schedule? Here Mr. Bakko enters into the fallacy of retrospective analysis in a system that prospectively matches teams based on the results of prior rounds.

Indeed, Mr. Bakko now treads on very dangerous grounds since a retrospective analysis of the complete 2009 Power Matching system reveals intrinsic flaws in the rankings that are far more severe than the purported “anomalies” attributed to Sabbath accommodation. For example:

- Louisiana ranked #7 yet lost to #18 and then beat #29, #37, and #22. Indeed, two of the three teams it beat won only one round.

Based on these match-ups, it can be argued that Louisiana merits no higher ranking than #19.

- Similarly, #14 ranked Arizona never beat a team better than #34 (out of 40), yet Mr. Bakko complains that Massachusetts which at #20 beat the higher ranked #33 should be asterisked for facing a weak schedule.

- Finally, #5 ranked Nevada beat #35 and #15, lost to #12 and then beat #21, yet was ranked higher than #12 Kentucky, who beat them head-to-head while only losing to near top-ranked #4. In fact, a total of 7 teams were ranked at least 5 places *lower* than a team they beat head-to-head.

The truth is that it is mathematically impossible to create a matching system that after a mere 4 rounds results in a statistically significant complete ordinal ranking of all teams. Claiming the contrary would be equivalent to saying that one could schedule a football season of just 4 games and not just determine the Super Bowl winner but also delineate the precise ranking of all other 31 teams.

Unfortunately, the NHSMTC Power Matching system suffers from even more significant flaws in that the rankings are based purely on raw win-loss, ballot, and point totals. There is no retrospective normalization of these raw scores to reflect the vastly different strength of opponents, the relative generosity of different judging panels in awarding points, the randomness of assignments within a round (particularly the first round) or even the logically conflicting results of direct head-to-head match-ups.

As a result of this analysis, I modify my previous claim to say that the NHSMTC organizers lack not only grace but also statistical aptitude.

Jeff Kosowsky

Newton, MA

The writer is the father of a Mock Trial participant from Massachusetts

The Maimonides School mock trial team split its four trials in national competition in Atlanta after a battle just to compete. (courtesy Maimondes team) WASHINGTON (JTA) — The record book will say that the Maimonides School finished 20th out of 40 teams at the National High School Mock Trial Championship in Atlanta, winning two trials and losing two.

But that doesn’t include the team’s huge victory even before last weekend’s competition had started allowing the suburban Boston Jewish day school just to participate.

After repeatedly rejecting requests to alter the tournament schedule so the Maimonides team would not have to compete on Shabbat, tournament officials were finally forced to relent less than two days before the competition began thanks to a small group of determined activists working 20 hours a day over the past few weeks — as well as a Maimonides team that was prepared to forfeit its chance at a championship rather than compromise its beliefs.

“You always wonder what’s going to happen if religiousness gets in the way” of something you want to do, said team co-captain Michael Kosowsky, 17. But “we weren’t talking at all about violating Shabbat. We were pretty strong in our principles.”

“This educates the public,” said fellow co-captain Leah Sarna, 17. “Shabbat is not at all voluntary and not something you can compromise on.”

The 27-member Maimonides team, of which eight competed last weekend, learned about the Shabbat conflict in early April, not long after it won the Massachusetts state mock trial championship qualifying them for the national event.

Maimonides hoped that instead of having to compete in the customary two trials on Friday and two trials on Saturday, the mock trial organization would make an exception for the school and move its Saturday trials to Thursday, when all the competitors already are in attendance and practicing at the competition site, or add additional trials for Maimonides on Friday.

The organization argued that altering the schedule affected the fairness of the competition because matchups in later rounds are determined by the results from earlier rounds. The results, its officials said, cannot be utilized properly if Maimonides is participating in its fourth trial while nearly all the other squads have participated in only two.

There was precedent for the request: In 2005, the local sponsoring organization for the competition, the North Carolina Trial Lawyers Association, made a similar rescheduling to accommodate a New Jersey Jewish day school, the Torah Academy of Bergen County. Pressured by the lawyers’ group, the mock trial organization acquiesced after initially refusing the request, then passed a resolution saying it would not allow similar accommodations for Sabbath observers in the future.

As a result of that decision, the New Jersey and North Carolina mock trial groups resigned from the national organization and formed their own group that does not hold competitions on Shabbat.

So Jeff Kosowsky, Michael’s father, and Daniel Edelman, a Maimonides alumnus who was familiar with the issue because his wife is an English teacher at the Torah Academy of Bergen County, enlisted Washington lawyers Nathan and Alyza Lewin, who specialize in religious discrimination cases.

Working pro bono, the Lewins got the Justice Department to issue a letter to the administrator of the Georgia courts, warning that entities that receive federal funds cannot administer programs which discriminate on the basis of religion. The competition was scheduled to be held in the Fulton County Courthouse, which receives federal funds.

The Lewins, Kosowsky and Edelman also tried to convince the local host sponsor, the Georgia Bar Association, to take action, but the assocation said that while it was sympathetic, claimed its contract with the national mock trial organization tied its hands.

The Maimonides’ backers also alerted the media, with articles appearing on the situation in a major Atlanta legal publication and The New York Times.

It worked.

On May 6, after one member of the Georgia Bar had resigned in protest, Fulton County Superior Court Chief Judge Doris Downs told event organizers that they would not be able to use the Fulton County Courthouse for the competition unless they made accommodations for the Maimonides team. The organizers then decided to schedule a Thursday trial and three Friday trials for the Bostonians.

Michael Kosowsky said the three trials on Friday were “a little tiring,” but the team was pleased where it finished, considering it was its first trip to the national championship.

The schedule change was popular among the other teams in Atlanta, as well.

Michael Kosowsky said that on the day the Maimonides team arrived, a number of competitors noticed their kipot and told them, “We’re really hopeful you get the accommodations.”

The other teams were “very, very supportive,” Sarna said. “It really meant a lot to us.”

Both said it made perfect sense that their fellow mock trial competitors would be so interested in their plight.

“It’s a competition about the legal system,” Sarna said. “They’re the type of people who would care about this.”

Those involved in the mock trial effort say they hope that the mock trial organization will make a permanent Shabbat accommodation policy, either by changing the days of the week that the tournament is held or, minimally, having a rescheduling option when Sabbath observers — Jewish or Muslim — qualify for the competition.

The mock trial group doesn’t appear ready to change: On its Web site, the 20th-place finish of Maimonides is accompanied by an asterisk that notes the team’s “deviation from typical team advancement.”

Do you want freedom of religious observance and expression? Or do you want to force others to make accommodations for your religion that you are unwilling to make yourself?

There was a time in this country in which there was slavery: “it was the way it always was.” There was a time in this country in which black people were not allowed to vote: “it was the way it always was.” There was a time when black people could not drink from the same water fountains or sit in the same parts of the bus as whites: “it was the way it always was.” There was a time when Jews and black could not live in certain neighborhoods: “it was the way it always was.” There was a time when Jews and blacks could not attend certain universities or get certain jobs: “it was the way it always was.”

Since you claim to be a high school student who is participating in the mock trial competition, I hope your coach can impress upon you that the values of our constition are a helluva a lot more important than who wins the competition.

My sense though is you don’t want Maimonides to compete because you are afraid they will whip your pants.

Every student going to Nationals, or with the hope to, knows that they will have to compete on a Friday and a Saturday, it is the way it always is. I would be furious if a team who never got power matched took a top 10 honors( one of the highest accomplishments in mock trial). As a student competing in a few days, I am happy with the NHSMTC’s decision.

As a “mock trial team member about to compete,” you must be a very talented student who may one day become influential perhaps even in the law. I hope and pray you learn to appreciate that our constitution values freedom of religion very much and that accommodations for religion are made all the time. I hope you can see that the rescehduling of two trials out of over 150 so that worthy students can participate in the competition is something that falls within the spirit and meaning of the legal system you are fortunate to be learning about.