Governor’s race on GOP side changing daily, pundits say

By Maria Saporta

Political pundits in Georgia agree — John Oxendine, GOP gubernatorial candidate and current insurance commissioner, should not star in his own television commercials.

Oxendine, who has been the front-runner in the highly-contested GOP race for governor, has seen his numbers slip in recent polls, and some are even saying that he may not even make the run-off.

But political pundits (their label) acknowledged, in a panel discussion Wednesday evening at the law offices of McKenna Long & Aldridge, that the race is in a state of flux and that the polling numbers are likely to keep changing before Tuesday’s primary election.

“Every one is polling,” said Matt Towery, publisher of InsiderAdvantage, a polling and research firm. “It will be different Sunday night that it is today. It will change.”

But Towery asked the other panelists their predictions, and the three felt that there would be a run-off between Oxendine and former Secretary of State Karen Handel.

“It’s been many, many years where we’ve seen such a competitive race,” said Tom Houck, a long time commentator who has his own public affairs and media company.

Dick Williams, a political journalist and observer for decades, also believed that Oxendine and Handel would be in a run-off. But he added that “John Oxendine is dropping like a stone,” largely because he spoke on his own commercials.

Finally, Tom Baxter, editor of the Southern Political Report, agreed: “The ad really was that bad.” But he still felt Oxendine would be in a run-off.

Only Towery disagreed with that consensus. “I would be shocked if Oxendine is in the run-off,” Towery said. “Those were the worst commercials ever.”

The pundits believed that Handel had the strongest base of support — the northern part of metro Atlanta, followed former U.S. Rep. Nathan Deal’s base in Northeast Georgia. Oxendine, who is from Gwinnett County, does not seem to have a particularly strong base in his home county. But he is seen as having the greatest statewide name recognition by having won his post three times, Baxter said.

Two new polls were released Thursday — a Rasmussen poll saying that Handel and Deal were tied with 25 percent of the vote and Oxendine was in third place with 20 percent; and a Georgia Newspaper Partnership poll that showed Oxendine with 31 percent of the vote, Handel with 23 percent and Deal with 18 percent.

On the Democratic side, the pundits all agreed that former Gov. Roy Barnes would win without a run-off. Most polls show him with well over 50 percent of the vote.

Theoretically, a run-off should be unavoidable in the Democratic side given that a majority of voters are African-Americans, and that Attorney General Thurbert Baker (who is polling second) could be expected to receive a majority of those votes, Williams said. But that theory is not playing out in the governor’s race.

“Barnes is running a terrific campaign,” Williams said.

So where would that leave the general election.

“Handel likely will be the nominee,” Towery said, which would lead to a Barnes versus Handel match in November.

Using a phrase from former U.S. President Jimmy Carter, Towery talked about a “malaise” that exists in the state because of little progress in transportation, water and education issues. Barnes already is running a general election campaign by saying that the Republicans are corrupt and inept and have taken a crazy pill, Towery said.

“Barnes is running the best campaign for governor; he’s the best equipped to be governor from day one; he’s a brilliant man, accomplished in both business and politics,” Towery said. “Everything is going for him except the dead weight of the national Democratic party.”

President Barack Obama’s approval rating in Georgia had dropped from 47 percent in November, 2008 election to 35 percent today, Towery added.

Williams, however, said that might be offset by the fact that “there are a lot of Republican businessmen supporting Roy Barnes.

“He’ll have a ton of money,” Houck said.

But if Barnes wins in November, he challenges will have just begun. He’ll be dealing with a difficult state budget and a Republican-led General Assembly.

Plus, Williams said that Barnes’ campaign proposals are estimated to have a $2 billion price-tag, and it will be tough to get any new initiatives through given the state’s budget and a majority Republican legislature.

Maria Saporta, Editor, is a longtime Atlanta business, civic and urban affairs journalist with a deep knowledge of our city, our region and state.  Since 2008, she has written a weekly column and news stories for the Atlanta Business Chronicle. Prior to that, she spent 27 years with The Atlanta Journal-Constitution, becoming its business columnist in 1991. Maria received her Master’s degree in urban studies from Georgia State and her Bachelor’s degree in journalism from Boston University. Maria was born in Atlanta to European parents and has two young adult children.

8 replies
  1. Scott says:

    Its a shame that the candidate who seems best on the issues important to me is Porter, and I’m going to vote for him in the primary. That said, I think Barnes will win the whole thing. What people forget is that this Governor and legislature will be redistricting the state for the Congress and Georgia House and Senate. Roy Barnes is the only firewall between the rural interests that keep the Atlanta region held hostage. This isn’t on many voters minds but it is the single most important issue that will have many consequences over the next 10 years.Report

    Reply
  2. Yr1215 says:

    I second the Porter endorsement. He still has a shot. I’m voting for him.

    Assuming Porter loses, Roy’s got my vote in the general (and every spare nickel I have).

    As far as redistricting goes, it is going to be an unholy mess if its Roy with a Republican legislature. An independent commission is desperately needed.Report

    Reply
  3. Scott says:

    An unholy mess will either yield compromise or nothing…and since nothing is not an option, if there is no agreement, the courts will do it…which comes close to an independent commission. And, an unholy mess is nothing compared to the rubber stamp a republican would give to the crazies under the domeReport

    Reply
  4. Yr1215 says:

    Scott, I agree except that when it ends up in the courts, there will be more litigation. And judges don’t always make the best decision. No doubt a republican only plan would be a zoo.Report

    Reply
  5. winkasdad29 says:

    Roy Barnes has my vote. Sonny Perdue’s lack of action and/or influence in almost every important issue for Georgia during his term has set us back 10 years. We need a person who is an experienced leader. We need someone who will ensure our state is treated with respect on the national level.

    I know it’s wishful thinking, but what is also needed is for both parties to come to compromise when they work under the Gold Dome. As long as the Democrats and Republicans focus on what’s important to their party’s constituents, and re-election, the state will continue to have problems that don’t get solved.Report

    Reply
  6. scott says:

    I was reading that one of the latest Rasmussen polls for the republican race also stated that Perdue had a 71% approval rating. I think they must have either 1. transposed the numbers (17% seems more like it), or they forgot the “dis” in front of approval.Report

    Reply
  7. Yr1215 says:

    Perdue is handing his successor, Republican or Democrat, a damn disasterous fiscal situation. Not entirely of his making. He’s not the worst governor of all time. But he’s far from good. The budget black holes are going to make Democrats look like tax-spend liberals because they are going to have to raise taxes immensely, unless they want to cut education spending.

    Crike, between education, medicaid, and the other messes, I can’t fathom what the next governor will do, or will have to do. I hate higher taxes. Hopefully they will be user-fee related (higher gas taxes, fee for service charges, pension reform, and adjustments in higher education expenditures). All I can say is yuck.Report

    Reply

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