The strong El Niño and what it might mean for Georgia

Tens of millions of Americans faced relentless heat throughout the past few weeks. The nation’s capital even broke a 107-year record, reaching 102° on the Fourth of July.

This extreme heat isn’t only being felt here in the States as Europe recently experiencing the most intense heat wave recorded on the continent, with at least 1,000 deaths attributed to the heat in Spain and 1,000 in France. With Southeast Asia facing a hotter, drier end-of-year forecast due to a stronger-than-normal El Niño, extreme heat is here to stay.

This begs the question: What is El Niño, and what does it have in store for Georgia?

This year’s unusual El Niño

El Niño is when the Pacific Ocean’s surface winds weaken and push warm water to the Americas, and on June 11, NOAA–the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration–confirmed an El Niño weather pattern.

The maps show how El Niño commonly affects Northern Hemisphere winter and summer climate patterns around the globe. Via NOAA at climate.gov

Such an event is confirmed once temperatures along the equator are above .9°, for several consecutive months. However, according to NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center, this particular El Niño has a 63 percent chance of developing into a “very strong” event, which is colloquially referred to as a “super” El Niño.

Zachary Handlos, the Director of Atmospheric and Oceanic Sciences at Georgia Tech, characterized a super El Niño as more impactful than a typical El Niño. He specifically cited forecasts indicating it is one of the strongest El Niño events in modern recorded history. “Some examples of past El Niño events that were very strong in recent history include those that occurred during the winters of 1982-83, 1997-98 and 2015-16,” he added.

Data from NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center.

What a super El Niño means for Georgia

Based on the previous super El Niño events, Handlos said Georgians can “expect greater-than-average precipitation, noting that how that precipitation falls is not known…This could mean more rainfall overall; however, this could also mean a significant severe weather outbreak at some point, a flooding event, or even a snow/ice event.”

In other words, there may be a massive snowstorm in the winter, or there may be heavy rain. Fortunately, while there may be more rain or snow, the hurricane season is likely to be less active due to a changed jet stream.

Handlos emphasized that since only three very strong El Niño events have occurred in the past 43 years, historical data may not accurately predict future conditions.

With the increased likelihood of stronger-than-normal rain or snow this winter, are local governments and experts concerned?

How the government is mobilizing

Atlanta City Councilmember Liliana Bakhtiari has been concerned since they were elected. “[In] my first year in office… I worked with Georgia Tech and launched a heat and stormwater vulnerability assessment block by block. It was actually one of the first to be done in the country and was certainly the first in Atlanta,” they said.

However, when asked if the city is prepared for winter storms, they said, “No. And not because they don’t want to [be prepared] — I don’t even think it’s on their radar. Preventative care and infrastructure is not something that we culturally prioritize.” While major winter storms are uncommon in Atlanta, stronger winter weather associated with climate change presents a concern.

Preparedness for heavy rain is one thing, but responding to it is another. Regents Professor and Co-recipient of the 2007 Nobel Peace Prize, Marilyn Brown, argues that creating smarter markets and building more resilience hubs are crucial to a strong response.

“Making sure that Georgia is prepared to interact with its neighboring utility partners in the Southeastern Energy Exchange Market (SEEM) to buy and sell electricity via sub-hourly trades across the region” is crucial to a proper response in the event of an emergency, Brown said. “That way, when snowstorms, hurricanes, and heat waves hit, we can take advantage of the business opportunity to help each other out. As climate extremes worsen, our markets need to become smarter.”

With only three recorded super El Niños in the past 43 years, we cannot know for certain that come winter, snow will be our main concern or flash flooding will be. As Handlos said, “We are working with a very small sample size and could be surprised over the next year!”