Big political races can sit off on the horizon, unmoving, and then take shape as suddenly as a summer shower. Something like that happened over the past week or so in Georgia.
Or “Georiga,” as it was misspelled in an online video teasing U.S. Rep. Mike Collins’ entry in the Republican race to see who will challenge U.S. Sen. Jon Ossoff next year. That goof got some ribbing in national media, but it didn’t affect Collins at all. He leads a mushy Republican field in an early poll.
Then, on successive days last week, Derek Dooley joined the Senate Republican field, Geoff Duncan made his long-expected party switch to the Democrats, Michael Thurmond announced he’s seeking the Democratic nomination for governor, and Attorney General Chris Carr sued his rival in the Republican race for governor, Lt. Burt Jones, over the way he’s financing his campaign.
The combination of all these developments has given the 2026 races for U.S. Senate and governor a much sharper focus.
As if there was much doubt, it’s clear President Donald Trump will play a role in both Republican primaries next year. U.S. Rep. Buddy Carter has nominated Trump for the Nobel Peace Prize and introduced a bill to rename Greenland Red, White and Blueland. But the early response to Collins signals he may have connected with the MAGA base in a way Carter, who’s been an announced candidate since May, has so far not managed to do.
We’ll know Dooley has caught on when we can discuss his candidacy without mentioning Gov. Brian Kemp. That time hasn’t come. Kemp first spurned White House efforts to recruit him for this race, then played his own hand by recruiting Dooley. There’s a familiar dynamic building in this primary race.
The Democratic primary for governor has already attracted former Atlanta Mayor Keisha Lance Bottoms, state Sen. Jason Esteves and state Rep. Derrick Jackson. Thurmond’s entry last week brings a candidate who’s won more than one statewide race, and lays claim to a certain “moderate” real estate.
If Duncan decides to get involved quickly in his adopted party, he could either run for his old job as lieutenant governor or take a shot at the governor’s race. That could set up a debate for that moderate ground Thurmond claims. He might also decide to sit this one out.
The 2021 bill, which established leadership committees through which elected officials have been able to bypass standard campaign finance limits, has already withstood a long string of court challenges. The latest, last month, was the rejection by the State Ethics Commission of a complaint by Carr similar to the one he has now filed in federal court. In addition to challenging the legality of Jones funneling money through his leadership committee, Carr is questioning a $10 million loan by Jones to his committee, which the attorney general claims doesn’t square with Jones’ financial disclosures.
The reason this law keeps getting challenged in court is that it creates such a strong motivation for doing so. Some candidates for office face strict limits on how much and when they can raise money, while others have a way of getting around those restrictions.
Carr’s lawsuit once again puts the law into focus through the lens of the governor’s race. If he were to win his case this time around, it would have a profound effect not only on the 2026 races but on the future politics of the state.
Trump’s endorsement of Jones, which came late Monday, was entirely expected, although it may have been a tad early.
The Republican Senate primary and Democratic gubernatorial primary take shape, a major figure switches sides (officially) and the Republican gubernatorial primary generates a federal case which could have lasting implications for the way campaigns are financed. That’s a pretty good shower after months of clouds in the distance.
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