President Trump made tariffs a centerpiece of his 2024 political campaign. During his first term, he significantly increased tariffs. Now, he is levying substantial tariffs on imports via executive orders with additional tariffs and increases widely expected. So, what does history tell us about tariffs? In his 1929 address to Congress, Congressman Hamilton Fish reminds […]
Author Archives: Bob Willis
Posted inGuest Column
History proves economic forecasting is easier said than done
The economic and market commentary dominating the financial press is often written in tones of linearity and cause-and-effect certainty — sometimes to the point of epistemic arrogance. Rarely is this analysis of economic data and macroeconomic forecasts couched in terms of their inherent uncertainty. My ruminating on this theory lacked coherence until my recent reading […]
Posted inColumns, Guest Column
What might Chairman Powell be thinking?
By Guest Columnist BOB WILLIS, chief investment officer at Willis Investment Counsel. We do not know exactly what Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell is thinking or how he evaluates our nation’s current spike in inflation. Nor do we know how he thinks about interest rates as the antidote to the highest inflation rate in forty […]
Posted inColumns
Economists are wounded: Does Biden smell blood?
By Guest Columnist BOB WILLIS, CEO, Willis Investment Counsel
The last 20 years may not be the best representation of U.S. economic history. Likewise, it may or may not be a reliable predictor of the future. Whatever the case, recent trends of low interest rates and inflation appear to have entered the neural circuitry of decision-making and significantly impacted the passing of the economic policy torch in our country.
Posted inColumns
Negative wealth effect + isolation: How reduced socialization could worsen a pandemic recession
By Guest Columnist BOB WILLIS, CEO, Willis Investment Counsel
For decades, I have maintained a professional diary of my thinking as chief investment officer for an investment management firm located north of Atlanta. Earlier this spring, when the pandemic led to safety precautions at our office, I headed to my mountain cabin to work remotely – which stimulated more thought and reflection, and a lot of writing. Bear with me as I reveal a few excerpts from back then, and now.
