New population data shows Metro Atlanta growth is slowing down

The Atlanta Regional Commission released its annual population report on Aug. 12, and for the first time in years the 11-county region’s growth has slowed.

This year, the region added 53,690 residents between April 2025 and 2026. It brings the total population to just over 5.3 million people, up from last year’s 5.28 million.

But the rate of growth saw a minor drop, from 1.2 percent to 1 percent annually.

Compare this year’s number to previous years: In 2025, the region added 64,400 new residents. In 2024, it grew by 62,700 people. In the past five years, Metro Atlanta has grown by about 1.2 percent each year.

“Our region continues to grow, but that growth is also continuing to slow,” ARC Data Science Administrator Moshe Haspel said. “This is part of a nationwide trend; it’s not anything unique to Atlanta.”

Of course, the current rates are all lower than pre-recession growth. In the 1980s and 1990s, the region averaged about 3 percent growth every year. Except for the City of Atlanta. From 1980 to 1990, the city declined in population. Then it saw minor growth for years. But in the past decade, the growth has spiked.

In 2025 Atlanta added 7,000 new residents within the city limits, bringing the total population to 549,615. None of the 11 counties actually lost population, either. The region is still growing, just slower than before.

Areas like Fulton County grew by 1.9 pecent, while Forsyth County grew by 1.5 percent and Henry County by 1.3 percent.

An ARC representative said it’s “only one piece in the puzzle,” an estimate to help the commission watch trends closely. It also doesn’t provide answers for the future. The year-over-year estimates are useful, but representatives say it is “too soon to tell” if the region is still on track to reach 7.9 million residents by 2050.

But the new estimates come with caveats. The regional commission uses building permits to calculate population changes. It doesn’t account for smaller datasets, like growth within existing buildings and homes.

According to Haspel, who presented the estimates, Atlanta saw the biggest drop in permits in 2025. But it still accounted for the most permits in the region overall. Other counties like Fulton County had increases. “The increases are small, and not enough to make up for the decreases we saw elsewhere,” Haspel said.

The ARC population report lays out a few key causes for the slower growth rate. One of the main issues is housing: There’s been a decline in home building permits, and supply is already low. Home prices stay elevated and effectively put a “brake” on population growth, especially for domestic migration.

“We still, as a region, have a housing deficit,” Haspel explained.

While Atlanta has seen the biggest drop of permits, Mayor Andre Dickens has a public goal to add or preserve 20,000 units of affordable housing within the city by 2030. It aims to combat the national rise in housing costs.

But the ARC also pointed to another key issue for population growth — the economy.

Last year, the ARC reported the region’s growth was driven by the local economy. Metro Atlanta’s employment base had grown 8 percent since 2020, the seventh-highest out of the nation’s metro areas.

This year, the region added 1,000 more jobs. It’s growing, but the region already has 3 million jobs. 1,000 jobs is a drop in the bucket. “That’s not nothing, but that’s also not very much,” Haspel said.

It also fits in with national trends. Haspel said Metro Atlanta is doing better than Los Angeles, Miami and Washington, D.C., though the region has fallen behind “our peers” in Texas.

But the region is part of a national trend. Across regions like Austin, Chicago, and Las Vegas, job growth has slowly flattened.

So what will ARC do with the estimates? The motto is “watch closely.” As a regional commission, ARC can’t actually pass legislation or make changes. It can only provide strategies and tactics for local governments.

“ARC’s annual population estimates give local leaders a clear, current picture of growth across the region and the data-informed foundation they need to plan for infrastructure, housing, and services,” ARC’s Chief Research and Innovation Officer Ann Carpenter said.

But the ARC strategies are coming. At the Sept. 2 Atlanta Regional Housing Forum, the ARC will unveil Metro Atlanta’s Regional Housing Strategy, a cross-agency strategic plan that will guide a region-wide effort to address housing challenges.