These are important elections, but not for any of the reasons we usually think of as important.
The results from around the nation could change the balance of power between the parties in Congress, but that’s happened in previous midterm elections. With his poll numbers at an all-time low, this is being seen as a kind of referendum on President Donald Trump, but he’ll have two years left in his term, even if it’s with a Democratic majority. The results will matter, but there will be another election in 2028.
But with the federal courts at odds with the Trump administration over its attempts to control these elections, with a thousand federal poll monitors about to arrive at selected polling places around the country, the results of these elections aren’t the subject of as much suspense as whether the results will be contested, and in what way.
The hours immediately after the polls close will be telling. Given the country’s current polarization, it’s hard to imagine unanimous acceptance of the results, no matter what they turn out to be. Some Democrats have reached a point of enthusiasm where they will believe nothing less than a blue tsunami, and some Republicans remain sold on Trump’s campaign magic, no matter what tangents he floats out on.
The real question is how far Trump intends to go in challenging the results of House and Senate races, after repeated failed pre-election attempts to bring state election offices under tighter control. Trump has been claiming rigged elections for as long as he has been in politics, but in this election he has a remodeled Justice Department to litigate his claims, at a time when his prospects at the ballot box are at their bleakest. It’s a dangerous combination.
Trump boasted that after being cheated out of office in 2020, he built a 2024 campaign that was “too big to be rigged.” We will soon find out if Democrats can make the same claim this year.
Here in Georgia, the polls indicate a very close race for governor, and a Senate race that hasn’t developed in the way that might have been expected a year or so ago. Very soon, there will be more to say about that. I’ll be back with more later in the week.
If you haven’t voted yet, look at your watch. There might still be time.
