Why are both Democrats and Republicans so sure the One Big Beautiful Bill will be President Donald Trump’s last big chance to pass legislation? There are good answers to that question, but they may not fit the circumstances we’re in.
Most of the assumptions baked into this year’s budget bill have to do with the cadence of modern American politics. Presidential elections produce enough congressional strength for the new president to pass legislation that generates enough backlash to weaken or topple the presidential party in the next midterm election and leave the president with an uncooperative Congress.
That’s happened enough times to make it seem especially likely with a bill polling as ominously as this one. But with the markets at record highs, the Democrats still out in the wilderness and some of the worst impacts of the bill not due to hit shore until after the next election, it’s not at all certain that the Republicans are going to lose their shaky Congressional majority next year.
Had Republicans had more confidence in making it through the midterms, the bill might not have been piled so high with policy that it is proving tricky to pass.
If they do buck conventional wisdom and remain in the majority, Republicans will likely spend much of their time on big beautiful repair projects. The current attempt in the Senate to establish a $25 billion “rural health transformation program” could be a template for future bills. It’s an expensive carveout intended to make up for the devastating effects of other cuts on rural hospitals.
To be clear, this cautious view doesn’t reflect the opinions of one of the beautiful bill’s chief enablers, Elon Musk, who wrote over the weekend that the bill in its current form in the Senate would be “political suicide for the Republican Party.”
The disenchanted billionaire wrote that the bill “gives handouts to industries of the past while severely damaging industries of the future.” That refers to last-minute changes in the Senate, which give increased incentives for coal production while speeding up the elimination of clean energy tax credits and placing new taxes on wind and solar.
Musk isn’t alone in his concern about what he calls “the industries of the future.” Earlier this month, 16 Republican Georgia legislators with solar operations in their districts sent a letter to the U.S. Senate Finance Committee warning that reducing incentives would strengthen the U.S. solar industry’s Chinese competitors.
“We urge you not to weaken the tax credits, as doing so would only harm the manufacturing renaissance in Georgia while creating opportunities for Chinese companies to take over the solar industry,” the letter said.
That, however, is just what the Senate version does. Fiscal conservatives like to say that the government shouldn’t pick winners and losers, but the One Big Bill is all about just that. As the letter from Georgia illustrates, many of those who have been picked to lose live in red districts.
The Republican action plan for selling the One Big Beautiful Bill to the wider American public was best summarized by Sen. Mitch McConnell when he said: “They’ll get over it.” Not that McConnell’s a close ally of the president, but on this bill, they’re all in it together.
That creates an opportunity for Democrats, but it is well within their ability to blow it.
To return to our first question: one reason why everybody assumes this is Trump’s one big shot is that it’s hard to imagine Trump would be interested in doing something like this again. He likes those executive orders, with the flourish of his signature and the flash of the cameras much more. The OBBB involves a lot of heavy lifting.
