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Atlanta’s Residential Real Estate Index Remains Stagnant

The Cal-Culator, Atlanta’s residential real estate index, remained stagnant at 6.3 for the month of October. Although we have seen year-over-year increases in home prices and home sales combined with decreases in foreclosure inventory, recent trends from August to September revealed increases in foreclosure inventory, a slowing in home price growth and added negative factors in the industry.

The October Cal-Culator

The October Cal-Culator

The Good

According to CoreLogic’s September Home Price Index, home prices increased 5.6 percent from the previous year, representing 31 consecutive months of home price increases.

Compared to 2013, foreclosure inventory has decreased by a staggering 30 percent, according to CoreLogic’s September National Foreclosure Report. The 12-month sum of foreclosures is at its lowest point in five years, and the Atlanta foreclosure inventory has decreased 0.7 percent.

Additionally, The Pending Home Sales Index, a forward-looking indicator released by the National Association of Realtors (NAR), rose 0.3 percent in September from August and is 1.0 percent higher since last September. The NAR also reported  that existing home sales increased 2.4 percent from the previous month.

The Bad

While some housing industry data, such as data on foreclosures and home sales, shows the industry is greatly improving compared to 2013, recent data has been indicating declines in month-over-month numbers, representing slowed growth in many facets of the industry.

Though home prices rose year-over-year, home price growth is slowing as prices dipped 0.1 percent from August to September, according to CoreLogic’s Home Price Index report.

“Home prices continue to rise with this time last year, but the rate of growth is clearly slowing as we exit 2014,” said Anand Nallathambi, president and CEO of CoreLogic. “With more positive macro-economic trends emerging in the U.S., we are forecasting moderate price growth for 2015.”

The Ugly

Although 2014 has experienced outstanding improvement in foreclosures as indicated by a 30 percent decrease in foreclosure inventory from September 2013, the recovery is beginning to lose pace.

Nationally, foreclosure inventory increased 4.7 percent in September from August with  Georgia  fifth on the list of states with the highest number of foreclosures.

“The level of serious delinquencies has rapidly declined over the last year few years, but the pace of improvement is beginning to recede,” said Deputy Chief Economist Sam Khater at CoreLogic. “As of June, serious delinquencies were 26 percent lower than the prior year, but as of September serious delinquencies were 21 percent lower.”

Lastly, a new report released by the National Association of Realtors found that first-time home buyers fell to its lowest point in nearly 30 years, which is significantly hindering the housing market from reaching its full potential.

The last Cal-Culator of the calendar year will be released December 9 and will hopefully close out the year on a positive note.


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