The front-page headline in the March 15 edition of the Atlanta Journal-Constitution declared “Metro Atlanta now 6th-largest region.” The story spoke of how the Atlanta region — with a population of 6.3 million people — had surpassed both Washington, D.C. and Philadelphia to become the sixth-largest metropolitan area in the country.
The photo the AJC used to accompany the article was one of massive gridlock along Atlanta’s interstate. Cars, cars, cars and more cars stuck in traffic alongside trucks depicted what it means for metro Atlanta to be the sixth most populous city in the country.
Here is the kicker. Our population growth isn’t stopping.
The Atlanta Regional Commission forecasts the Atlanta region’s population will hit nearly 8 million people by 2050 — an increase of more than 1.8 million people.
So, how will all these people get around our region? Cars, cars, cars and more cars.
Why? Because we are not investing in a regional rail transit system that would provide true alternatives to traveling by car. Instead, the 2024 Metropolitan Transportation Plan passed by the Atlanta Regional Commission board, now chaired by Atlanta Mayor Andre Dickens, in February envisions the region spending $168 billion on transportation with future transit investment almost solely dedicated to “bus rapid transit” (BRT).
The one exception? BeltLine rail. It is ludicrous to me that people are trying to kill the one light rail project that’s moving forward. More than 30 percent of the light rail proposal has already been designed, and a contract for the rest of the final architectural and engineering design was approved by MARTA with the city’s blessing in July. The corridor is available. And the funding for construction is there.
Instead of fighting BeltLine rail, people should be demanding more rail transit in our region. Projects originally envisioned to be rail — Campbellton Road, Clifton corridor, Clayton County, MARTA along Georgia 400 to Alpharetta — now have been shifted to BRT because of claims it is less expensive than rail. That may be true on the front end, but the operating costs of BRT are significantly higher than the operating costs of rail. Plus BRT projects don’t attract the ridership or stimulate development like rail transit. In other words, you get what you pay for.
Consider what former Gov. Roy Barnes told me earlier this month — I’m repeating because of the wisdom of his words.
“There’s a place for bus, but I do not think BRT is the solution because when you have major congestion, the bus still has to be on the road,” Barnes said. “The reason people don’t ride buses is because mass transit has to be competitive on time.”
As he sees it, metro Atlanta’s future is destined to be gridlock because the state has never invested in an urban rail transit system.
“The Atlanta region has been the economic engine for the state,” Barnes said. “Our inability to build out a regional rail and bus network will impact our economic competitiveness as a region. We have never invested in a regional transit system. The only thing we have invested in is roads and bridges.”
MARTA, approved in 1971 in the City of Atlanta, Fulton and DeKalb counties, has been paid primarily with local sales taxes and federal funds. The missing player in building out a regional rail transit system has been — and continues to be — the state of Georgia.
Without the backbone of the MARTA rail network, Atlanta and Georgia never would have been able to attract the 2026 World Cup, three Super Bowls or the 1996 Summer Olympics.
If the state of Georgia wants us to remain competitive as a region, it must invest in rail transit, just like all the other major metropolitan areas in the country are doing or already have done.
Consider the other metro areas that are in the top 10 in the country: New York, Los Angeles, Chicago, Dallas, Houston, Washington, D.C., Philadelphia, Miami, Phoenix and Boston. Virtually all those cities already have or are building rail lines to provide transportation options for their people with the help of their state governments.
Mike Carnathan, the Atlanta Regional Commission’s director of research and analytics, said that with the exception of expanding rail transit, the Metropolitan Transportation Plan projects investment going to maintain roads and offering more bicycle and pedestrian trails as well as BRT projects. As he sees it, it is unrealistic to expect our region to be free of traffic.
“There’s going to be traffic congestion,” Carnathan said. “There is no successful metropolitan area in the nation that is not going to have gridlock.”
So, the question is whether we will offer residents transportation alternatives, especially in areas with the greatest population density.
In looking to 2050, the ARC forecasts that the population in Fulton County will grow by more than 250,000 — more than any other county in the 21-county region.
“We forecast that the majority of growth in Fulton County will be driven by the City of Atlanta,” said Carnathan, who added that ARC envisions the City of Atlanta having 690,000 residents by 2050 — 200,000 more people than it currently has.
That kind of growth is depicted in an ARC map that tabulates population change per square mile between 2020 and 2050. The map shows the greatest increase in density will be in the most urban part of Atlanta, essentially the area slated to be served by BeltLine rail transit.
There also is the equity issue. When talking about affordability, we must consider the combined cost of housing and transportation. Reducing the need to own a car — thanks to greater transit options — is essential to making Atlanta affordable to all. While that’s also true throughout the region, providing transportation options will require significant investments in rail transit that not currently part of our regional plan.
Atlanta used to dream big. In the 1960s when the population of metro Atlanta was less than 1 million people, then Atlanta Mayor Ivan Allen Jr. had a “Platform for Progress” that called for a regional rail transit system that would have served the entire region.
Back in 2008, the Atlanta region adopted Concept 3 — a plan that called for the expansion of heavy rail along with new light rail and commuter rail throughout the region. We also spoke of smart growth — combining transit and land-use planning — by encouraging development around rail stations.
Today we’ve stopped dreaming. We no longer think about what kind of city we will in 25 or 50 years — or even what kind of city we want to live in 10 years from now.
Yes, we are the sixth largest metropolitan region in the country. But our future will be mired with unlivable traffic congestion if we don’t step up our investment in rail transit — beginning with BeltLine rail.
The article you just wrote Maria is so spot-on that for 27 years I’ve been reading you fabulous article again spot on as dysfunctional is the state of Florida is maybe we need to invite brightline to Atlanta and see what they could do and see if they could make something from Chattanooga to Atlanta or even from Chattanooga only to Orlando to hook up but great job
Gov. Barnes said, “I do not think BRT is the solution because when you have major congestion, the bus still has to be on the road.” ‘
With all due respect, this is wrong. It is a misunderstanding that generates enormous confusion.
Transit success does not depend on the technology (rail vs. bus.) It depends on the “alignment” (the surface right-of-way.) The alignment can be dedicated (no other vehicles) or it can be shared (with cars, usually.)
Now here are the key points:
1. A dedicated alignment will provide fast transit service, be that service by bus or rail. See Hartford’s BRT service on a dedicated alignment. BRT goes fast, because it has its own alignment.
2. A shared alignment will provide slow transit service, be that service by bus or rail. See Atlanta’s streetcar, whose alignment is shared with cars. The streetcar goes slow because it gets mired in traffic.
So the key factor in transit is the *alignment*, not the technology (BRT vs. rail.)
Much of today’s debate over rail vs. BRT misses the point. The correct debate is over shared vs. dedicated alignment. Atlanta needs to create dedicated alignments for BRT on routes that meet demand.
Atlanta can have cost-effect, quickly deployed transit if it creates *dedicated* BRT lanes.
And guess what? That is what MARTA is doing with Summerhill BRT, Campbellton Rd. BRT, and Clifton Corridor BRT.
Great point, Hans. In addition, dedicated BRT routes are much less expensive than streetcar lines, which means our More MARTA dollars go further when spent on BRT. And BRT can get up and running more quickly, too.
Great article, but unfortunately when GDOT thinks about solving traffic, its reflex is to add another lane. We can’t add any more lanes in much of the city, and I would argue we have overbuilt our highways to the detriment of transit. Successful cities will always have traffic, but very successful cities will have alternative ways to get around.
Maria – as the lead architects for the most recent and failed MMPT design in downtown Atlanta and longtime advocates for inter-city rail – hail to Gov. Barnes – I completely agree with you regarding the need and the preference for heavy rail to reach into the rapidly growing populations of Gwinnett and Cobb Counties. However, putting light rail or street cars on the Beltline will not help take cars off the roads. Feeding into the Beltline trail system is a great idea, but spending (the current budget X 3) for rail on the Beltline is the wrong place to invest in transit. Cobb and Gwinnett need to get serious about real transit solutions – like DC and Dallas have.
Bill – As a transportation planner for the City under Shirly Franklin I helped make the case for adding north-south through service for passenger rail that led to your MMPT design. The reorientation of the Multi-Modal Passenger Terminal for downtown Atlanta from a previous east-west only design was a key element of the 2009 BeltLine Framework Agreement where Amtrak agreed to withdraw its notice of intent to condemn an easement for intercity passenger rail on the Northeast BeltLine. Atlanta’s “innovative redevelopment effort combining greenspace, trails, light rail transit, and new development” is what made it possible to acquire the Eastside Trail corridor. Completely agree that Cobb and Gwinnett need to get serious – maybe even on the same page about regional transit – instead of balkanized and insular, but the City of Atlanta’s More MARTA half penny is about intown circulation.
It’s disappointing that the current gulch redevelopment has lost sight of the MMPT focus. At least the pairs of Norfolk Southern and CSX corridors that traverse metro Atlanta – one each to Cobb, one each to Gwinnett, one each to the southeast, and one on each side of the Airport – will be there for future passenger rail investment when we’re ready for more robust regional cooperation. One wonders if recent Gwinnett transit sales tax votes would have passed if the two commuter rail lines promised in the Concept 3 Regional Transit Plan had been included.
Long-awaited changes to federal railroad rules in 2018 now allow streamlined ‘European-style’ Diesel Multiple Unit (DMU) trains to share freight rail lines. Commuter rail lines in the 2008 Concept 3 plan assumed long, locomotive-hauled trains generally limited to peak flow service with few stops – not a great service model in the post-COVID world. The newly allowed nimble, self-propelled DMU’s can easily make frequent stops in urban areas and they are well suited to all-day, two-way operations – precisely what is needed for the Clifton Corridor. Shouldn’t MARTA look at a DMU option that could enhance capacity of the CSX line through Emory before paving a busway that would block rail expansion on this link? That’s where we’re missing a technology breakthrough.
Cars don’t scale.
The problem for all cities is as simple as that.
This needs to be repeated endlessly until policymakers understand it, accept it, and plan for it.
Solutions are available. Most trips are under 3 miles. Make them better, give them a smaller footprint, and you’ve done a lot.
Every suburb should have an “urban” center of dense, walkable retail and services. This will do more to get folks out there understanding the concept than anything else we can do.
When Lawrenceville and Suwanee and Alpharetta have their own mini-centers, which people want to get to, then you’ll see the political change we need.
Why not Air Taxis? This compliments the intermodal system from first mile to last mile and it’s carbon free. Just a thought . . . . .
Yet another unaffordable transportation option!
Arguments between trains and buses disappear once you understand they’re both EVs. But it’s also true that cars don’t scale.
https://www.danablankenhorn.com/2024/03/the-math-of-urban-density.html
Maria, building a 2.3 mile streetcart stub along the Beltline that ends at Ponce Market and may never be completed won’t do anything to allay traffic congestion in Atlanta. It’s nothing more than an grossly over-priced feel-good gesture that will result in only one real accomplishment: degrading the Beltline. Surely we can do better than that to address Atlanta’s transit issues!
There are mo other spaces that avoid street traffic, are under city control, avoid freight traffic, and have significant planning and funding underway.
This is the low hanging fruit for traffic I’m Atlanta. If are not able to pull this off than there is little optimism for creating a real interconnected mass transit system I’m the city.
Heads up, Atlanta! Don’t fall for this low-energy, no-vision hype. Let’s think big about how we can all connect to each other through BeltLine transit, how we can allow everyone all over the city to travel to and from the Eastside Trail whether they own a car or not. There is a wealth of opportunity on the Eastside Trail that everyone should be able to access. The rail has always been planned to run alongside the trail and to be compatible with it. We are the 6th largest metro now. The city is projected to grow by leaps and bounds as Maria wrote. We have to plan for growth. Let’s have a collective vision for a connected future. You can learn the facts about Beltline rail here:
https://beltline.org/category/about-the-project/project-goals/transit/
BeltLine rail does not solve any real transit need in terms of daily commuting origins and destinations. How many people need to get from downtown to Ponce City Market or vice versa on a daily basis? Eastside is an affluent area that is already very walkable, has a wide, multi-use trail and is served by adequate bus lines that provide a more direct route to downtown than this would be. Most that live in Inman Park, Edgewood, Old Fourth Ward likely have the option to work remotely. We’re taking away funding for corridors that have mass job commute needs like Clifton, Campbellton, and Southlake and downgrading them to BRT in order to fund rail for this toy project that connects people to entertainment primarily. Wake up folks, this should not be acceptable. This is not how transit should be prioritized in a region.
A typical short-sighted reaction from the BAT group. The east side transit is the first step in the visionary loop of real public mass transit that will connect 45 neighborhoods with equitable, affordable transit that serves all. It’s the future of the city.
The BAT group is pushing the least equitable, least affordable and most disruptive transportation options. No vision with that group.
Singling out the first segment/phase as not making a huge impact is easy to do for any project. This is about taking control of the future of Atlanta. Every visionary accomplishment starts with the first step.
We need to build better transit infrastructure, and cut down on car subsidies, in metro Atlanta.
Individual habits matter too, in terms of both the direct impact of personal transportation choices and building a constituency for transit. Currently large and powerful segments of the community think transit is not for them, aside from whether MARTA could provide adequate service.
I appreciate Gov. Barnes’ continuing advocacy. Curious if he personally rides MARTA. It’d be great for my kids to see him there sometime. Even better if he brought along some of his peers.
Living in East Atlanta and working downtown, and with a fleet of ebikes for my family, I’ve managed to engineer a life that allows me to do 90% of everything car-free, completely opting out of traffic on my daily errands to work, to school, to get groceries and supplies, and on other mundane chores. As others have noted, most car trips are between 3 and 5 miles, a perfect distance to cover on an electric-assist bicycle — and making more pockets of Atlanta truly bike friendly is far easier than building heavy rail. The only real cost is angering drivers who demand every inch of roadway space, but doing so has the potential to tame traffic, at least at a neighborhood level. Atlanta is not “full.” At least, it is not full of people, but it is definitely full of cars, most of them containing only one person, and I have little faith in the city and state (mainly the latter) making the necessary investments to make cars optional at least some of the time. The metro area is going to choke on its own growth, and it will have been entirely preventable. In the meantime, if something happens and I can no longer do life on two wheels here, I’ll be looking to move to a metro that gets it. Atlanta doesn’t, and it seems it never will.
I‘m all for most kinds of transit , including rail.
But until we start building our city differently, transit can’t compete.
We need more density, less parking, and better transit.
One without the other two isn’t going to work.
I pray that our project someone can apply for it for us. Our city deserves this project, numerous
neighborhoods and Neighborhood Planning Units (NPUs) have said yes we want the project delivering more transit in our communities. Atlanta’s our neighborhoods continue to grow. To some degree it is alot of entities. We have to hurry before more legislation passes and we miss out in the opportunity. That’s not fair for our communities that are growing and are wanting stellar additional transportation alternatives.
Maria,
I believe those numbers concerning operating costs of bus transit versus rail transit are outdated. The operating costs of an electric bus are a much less than those of a diesel bus, due to greatly reduced fuel and maintenance costs. In the near future we will likely have autonomous buses, further reducing operating costs. See Waymo, GM Cruise, and Tesla FSD. I use Tesla FSD regularly.
I’m all for continuing to push heavy rail into the suburbs. I’m all for running streetcars in the street like the Europeans do. There are plenty of streets all over the city we could run trains or BRT on. Therefore the Beltline is not needed for rail transit. I think the Beltline is more valuable to Atlanta as a green space and linear park supporting pedestrians and cyclists. I use an e-bike to do many of my trips in the Grant Park neighborhood, including grocery shopping. We need more bicycle infrastructure, and may need the ROW reserved for Beltline transit to separate foot traffic from wheeled traffic. Also, Atlanta always needs more space to plant trees to counterbalance development.
Finally, we need to keep an eye on Las Vegas, where they are launching construction of a new type of transit system. The Boring Company is working to make underground transit more affordable, flexible and convenient than current systems. If construction is as fast as they hope (that never happens, does it?) a ~70-mile system will be built in less time than the proposed ~20-mile Beltline rail loop, with less disruption to existing businesses and homes, at less expense.